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California Naturally-Occurring Affordable Homes At Risk Report 2023

NOAH 2023 cover
Using a new, proprietary methodology, the California Housing Partnership is now able to identify unsubsidized naturally-occurring affordable housing (NOAH) properties that due to their age, location and other market factors, offer rents affordable to low-income households. This is the first statewide assessment of At-Risk NOAH that has been done to date. Notable findings include: 
Already Lost
  • 120,000+ homes are no longer affordable, largely concentrated in Southern California, the Bay Area, and Sacramento and Fresno counties
Now At-risk                            
  • 324,000+ homes are currently at risk of losing their affordability by mid-2024
  • 47 of 58 counties in CA have at least 100 at-risk homes
    • Highest numbers are in Southern California and the Bay Area
    • Los Angeles County has the highest number 85,350    
  • Nearly 37% of CA’s multifamily housing stock is currently at very high or high risk of losing their affordability by mid-2024
    • Of the most populous counties, Fresno (69.5%) and Kern (61.1%) have the highest percentages of at-risk affordable rental homes
Displacement from a NOAH property is particularly concerning from a fair housing perspective as 66.5% of lost NOAH are located in the High or Highest Resource areas compared to 43.7% of remaining NOAH.